Mathematical horse racing system


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Log in or Sign up. Messages: Anyone have an interest in horse racing? If even for the mathematics behind it? Vic the TraderMar 24, Log in or Sign up to hide all adverts. Messages: 4, At the end of this post, the correct methodology is described for winning money versus a parimutuel system.

It follows a methodology for beating a hand book. It is not likely to result in finding a winning system, but is the best known approach to the problem short of fixing races. If anyone has specific questions, I might be able to provide answers. Sorry for the use of some jargon, the meanings of which I think should be obvious from context.

I never became addicted, only going to a track on rare occasions when friends wanted to go. My friend who was from a wealthy family lost millions over his life time, never realizing that our initial winnings were due to luck, not skill at handicapping horses.

I know a lot about handicapping horses, calculating payoffs, the track take, et cetera. I was involved in writing the first programs for calculating payoffs, which is not difficult but a bit more complex than most people imagine.

I prefer Blackjack, which I have played a lot over a period of 50 or so years. Until the late 's, payoffs were computed by men who had a knack for doing arithmetic very fast. I forget the numbers, but there is some estimate that many thousands of dollars are not bet on the next race for every minute that payoffs are delayed.

Track owners want to pay off the winners as soon as possible, in order to increase the handle on the next race. In theory, a parimutuel system is beatable. The odds are determined by the way people at the track bet.

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In practice, there are not enough stupid bettors to result in odds skewed enough to allow a good handicapper to beat the track take. Then subtract one. The result indicates the take. This approximates the average loss to the overall betting public at the track. You would be paid off at those odds no matter what final odds were assigned to the horse.

As more bets were made, the bookie would adjust the odds to balance the book. I do not think that there are any old time bookies in United States, but they might exist in the UK.

When I was in college, there were bookies who ran hand books at these society events for nostalgia, not to make money. They had no idea of which horses were the best. In a 5-horse race, they would usually start out giving 3 to 1 odds on each horse total booking percentages: 1.

The above allowed me to win a small amount of money times a year. What I did was called Dutching the book. The term was due to a Dutchman who made money off of hand bookies circa I did not invent the above system on my own.Successfully generating a profit over time from horse racing wagers requires a fairly substantial initial investment of staking money.

This wagering pot is then divided up into points, and determines how much you have to stake on each bet. Managing your investment judiciously is critical to sustained profits, as even a winning bet can end up losing money in the long run by choosing an unprofitable wager. The most successful bettors are known as professional handicappersand they work to find the most profitable bets while minimizing their losses on unlikely wagers.

Handicapping horse races begins with an examination of the various factors that go into winning a race, which allows a calculation of the appropriate amount to place on a bet. This calculation starts withor all of your staking pot, but horse racing tracks typically collect a portion of all wagers placed on the day to cover track expenses. Next, the 80 can be divided by the size of the field to show how much each factor will determine the winner of the race.

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For example, an event with an 8-horse field would render an equation of 80 divided by 8, equaling Horse racing is known for its exciting and unpredictable finishesbut the vast majority of horse races can be narrowed down to a few true contenders long before the starting gun by considering the abilities of each horse.

The horse with the highest winnings per start average is the class of the field and receives a unit. The next most important factor is consistency, which is determined by dividing the number of starts by the wins accumulated over the year.

Speed ratings are commonly used to measure the capabilities of horses, but where they are unavailable the horse with the fastest time on the surface of the day and at the current race distance receives the unit. After determining the influence of central factors for each horse in the race, percentages can be assigned to each runner. The class horse of the race receives a 10 percent ranking bonus, and the factors are tallied to give each horse a projected chance at winning, shown as a percentage.

These percentages can then be converted into fractions, meaning that a horse with a 50 percent ranking would win races roughly half the time. From this point, ensuring a profit on horse racing wagers is done by taking advantage of favorable odds. Wagering on horse races is one of the oldest forms of public entertainment, and handicapping horses is a way to turn the fortunes of the day in your favor.

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Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam.

Learn how your comment data is processed. Sign in. Log into your account. Forgot your password? Password recovery. Recover your password. Get help. Last Word on Sports.When spring rolls around its time to dress to impress, have a few drink with some mates and have a sneaky punt. Then again, I never look forward to waking up the next morning knowing a good chunk of the money I earned last week is now in the hands of a cashed up bookmaker. The first step is to find how likely the bookmakers think a horse is to win a race the probability.

Why should we bet now? Now the first few times you place a bet you may not have a win. To explain this, consider tossing a coin.

However as you toss the coin more and more times, the results should get closer and closer to a spread of heads and tails. This is known as the law of large numbers. Hence the more races we bet on that we expect to make a profit from… the closer our budget will approach a profit the profit we expect given the probabilities. Now we know when it becomes profitable to bet, but how much should we bet? Our entire budget? A quarter? This equation, which forms the basis of the Kelly betting system, suggests an amount to bet on a horse given the odds, the probability you think it has of winning and your total budget.

It can be mathematically proved that this system, assuming you have accurate probabilities, produces maximum income. Betting the amount given by the equation will maximise your income if your probabilities are sound. Well, a common way to reduce the risk of each bet is to bet half or a quarter of the amount suggested by the equation.

Whilst this does reduce potential income, the risk is greatly reduced, and if your probabilities are inaccurate it will not strip as much money away from you relative to the full bet.

The main drawback of this betting system is that it relies on having a belief of how likely your horse is to win a given race. Complex algorithms, the foundation of such predictors, take into account a range of past data which can be quite accurate. Another interesting point to take into account is the Favourite-Longshot biaswhere both individuals and markets tend to overvalue the chances of underdogs and undervalue the chances of favourites.

So there you have it, statistics can help give you the best chance to leave the track with a little bit more weight in your back pocket. Interestingly enough, the statistical models used in betting that are behind what I have discussed today are often used to exploit the share market, with many companies making large profits of these principals.

But absolutely i think anyone can benefit from reading this, even if it is just to get a bit on an idea of strategies that could potentially be profitable, and at-least an appreciation for the complexities of such strategies, and the potential power for such mathematics in a wider application.

Cool post! Horse racing in spring. Deciphering the world of betting is no simple task. October 8, Categories Class of Posted by njolly. Previous Previous post: Hiding in plain sight! Next Next post: Indigenous information informs intelligent solutions. October 10, at am. October 9, at pm. October 9, at am. Scientific Scribbles.Gambling is for chumps. We are serious when we make the statement that almost all tipster services for horse racing are awful and lose you money.

Most tipsters are unreliable. They are shady about their bets and worse still often send you a tip minutes before a race when the price of the favourite they are tipping is so low is hardly worth placing the bet. Along came Bet Intellect about two years ago and blow everyone away.

Their ethos is simple…. They look at EVERY single online bet being placed with every bookmaker and exchange and form an overview concensus opinion of what everyone thinks, they then run this through an algorithm to only focus on horse race meets with predictable courses, on good days with favourable weather and then send these tips out consistently at the same time every day when you have plenty of time to place you bet at good odds.

You could take every tip every day an average day has 2 or 3 or you could only take one or two a week, or skip a whole week! You have the complete freedom to do what you want. You can find out more here. Buncejar allows you to unlock the secret of sports bet arbitrage to double your win rate with your horse race betting selections.

Buncejar uses a team of trading experts with years of combined experience in the betting markets between them, to accurately predict which bookmaker odds are set to move in your favour in the near future. The reviews online speak for themselves. The beauty with this system is the high win rate for horse racingprofitability and most importantly you can be earning money in the first day.

Bet Intellect — The nerds are the kings of horse racing. Best of all they only ask you to pay them when you win! This nice lady does a much better job than me on explaining how. Related posts:. Ways to Make Money on the Side. Second Income Ideas. December 27th, BettingTrading.This is because you can use some tried and trusted horse racing systems to raise your chances of a win every time that you place a bet on a race.

This is an easy to use horse betting system that takes advantage of a flaw in the way that each way prices are set up by bookies.

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Of course, the bookmakers know all about this issue but there is nothing that they can legally do about it, even though they have tried desperately to get it removed. To give the Each Way Sniper approach a try you need to use a special piece of software that identifies the most profitable bets around at any given time.

This tool lets you very easily see where you need to place an each way bet in order to make money regularly. You then place a bet with the bookmaker and lay it off with Betfair. If you do it right then you will win regardless of the outcome. The tool mentioned earlier locks in the profit that you make and if you use it wisely then you will win pretty much every time that you use it. It is important to point out that this horse racing system is based on mathematics rather than luck or gut feeling, so success comes down to following the rules to the letter.

Overall, this betting strategy is ideal for someone who is happy to spend a couple of hours learning the ropes and then meticulously planning their bets in order to pick up regular, fairly modest wins with little risk.

Improving Your Game: Horse Racing Math - Episode 6

Another of the popular horse racing systems is known as the extra place strategy. This is an option that can be used by all gamblers using each way bets. Basically, bookmakers will sometimes pay an extra place on each way bets at some racing events. This means that you can look to take advantage of the greater chance of winning even when you wager a modest amount.

The first point you need to understand is that bookies typically pay out on a fixed number of places depending upon the number of horses taking part and the type of event that it is.

mathematical horse racing system

So, a handicap race with over 25 runners will pay out on 4 places, while a race with 5 to 7 runners will normally only pay out on the first 2 places. To get started on this horse betting strategy you need to first of all find out what extra place offers are currently available from bookies.

I use Oddschecker to find this out. It is then a question of methodically working out the odds that are on offer for finishing in the extra place, and how you can lower the risk.

If your horse finishes in the extra place position, you win both the place part of the each way bet and also the place lay bet.The only downside of handicapping is that it can be tedious work. Sometimes, it just takes all the fun out of race betting.

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What if there was a simpler way to pick winners? A mathematical approach to horse racing just might offer some upside for those who want to practice EZ Horse Betting. Ever since the dawn of handicapping, race bettors have been looking for shortcuts. Almost all of them would like a done-for-you, easy to master system that never fails. No such system exists, of course, but some systems do a pretty good job of picking the occasional winner.

The goal of all systems is to break down the factors of handicapping and arrive at a consensus on which horse is most likely to win its race. Handicapping is very subjective. It calls for intuitive leaps on the part of bettors. They can study all of the information in the Daily Racing Form and other publications, but at the end of the day they must still choose one horse over another.

Some races are very competitive. The handicapper might be torn between two choices, and is unable to decide. What handicappers search for like the the Knights Templar searched for the Holy Grail is a system which assigns a numerical value to horses in a race. If they can do that, and the numbers are accurateit would be very easy to identify a winner.

Just look for the horse with the highest or lowest, if you are doing it that way number and bet on them. Believe it or not, a company called Thorograph has made quite a living doing exactly that for many years.

Thorograph uses sophisticated computer programs to assign numbers to every horse in a race. As you might imagine, this kind of information is not cheap. But some players have had amazing success with Thorograph. Everything about betting race horses involves numbers. There are numbers on the horses. The are speed figures.

mathematical horse racing system

There are distances. Most importantly, there are statistics. Some statistics in horse racing hold true year after year. An example is that favorites win one out of every three races. Mathematics is the science behind statistical analysis. Quite a few years ago a guy named Bill James introduced the concept of what came to be called Sabremetrics. He literally changed the way the game of baseball was played. In horse racing, statistics can also become a game-changer for you and the way you bet horse at an online racebook.

Laying the groundwork for a mathematical horse race betting system means first making some general observances and turning those observances into rules. Those rules will then become guiding beacons as you use your system. You will not deviate from them.

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You already know that favorites on the track do not win their fair share of races. Therefore, the first rule of the mathematical system for race horse betting is to eliminate short priced horses as betting choices.

First Favourite: The Best Horse Racing Systems That Work

Notice we did not say eliminate the favorite, only horses less than on the tote board. If you can find a favorite that is or better and you think the horse deserves a bet, by all means take a shot. Think about this scenario.Horse races are one of the most difficult sports in the world, predicting a race is almost impossible.

But there is a system capable of providing predictions, results, and tips for horse racing betting fans. The starting point for this system is the informative quality it possesses, Mel creator of the system is dedicated to investigating everything necessary about a particular horse race, everything about the horse and who will ride it in the race. It is very important to know every detail of the race and the horse, says Mel, is the fundamental piece to make a winning bet.

Mel Gee is an expert, a man dedicated to offering his followers a way to make money without risk with his horse racing tips. The knowledge of this man is reflected in each of the tips that the system shares with the subscribers. It is not necessary to have luck, what is needed is intelligence and patience to wait for the best horse races.

Mel takes his time to check each race, he knows where to look for the best information and makes sure his sources are reliable.

mathematical horse racing system

The horse races that Mel chooses, as he himself says, are the most lucrative horse races. According to the advice of Mel Gee, it is very important to choose horse races that serve to double the profits in a single race, horse picks with odds superior to 1.

Subscribers will receive tips directly from Mel Gee system creator for use in upcoming horse races. The tips are the same used by the creator of the system to make his personal horse racing bets.

The system has the function of converting horse racing into a gold mine for subscribers. Not a magic system, the perfect system does not exist, but thanks to the hard work of Mel Gee, he has made this system for horse racing as one of the best options to take advantage of a sport that has several ways to generate money for the bettors around the world.

It is not about making money quickly with one or two races, but about winning bets with the direct advice of a horse racing betting expert like Mel. The system is not for any type of punter, it is for punters who are willing to learn everything about secret horse racing tips and listen attentively what an expert like Mel Gee has to say.

This system is neither automated nor dependent on advanced horse racing software. It is a system that is completely made by the hand of an expert man with more than 30 years of experience in horse racing. There is nothing more certain than trusting someone who knows what he does thanks to his experience and knowledge.

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Thanks to the First favorite easy horse racing system which is available on the firstfavourite. Mel Gee was able to create a strong system that has long-term success, and that can be verified in the profit statistics during the first months of the system. To get an idea of the secret of this system, imagine having to choose between horse races every day and you must find the best horses, search among so many numbers and options with a horse that has the possibility to offer an advantage over others.

Mel and his system found the secret of how to find that horse which made him a profitable horse racing tipster. It took him more than 20 years of close involvement with the horse racing betting and finally, he was able to achieve it.

All selections are made by the creator of the system, which ensures that they are winning tips and perfectly supported by statistics, information and others. All horses are used by Mel Gee to make his personal bets, just like any other punter. You can get advice and ask any questions to Mel Gee, the creator of the system will answer you via email anytime.

This is an advantage that no other system in the market offers, communicating directly with the creator of the system helps to resolve any doubts before making the bets or starting. The system is armored against failures, the tips go through a complete protocol to be chosen, a protocol created and perfected by Mel during more than two decades of knowledge in horse racing.

The system includes full access to horse racing tips and information. Mel Gee can be contacted at any time for questions and doubts about the system via email, he will personally answer emails and give advice to subscribers.

The price does not seem to be very large for all the benefits that are obtained with the First Favourite horse racing betting system, it is a bargain. Bettors can be sure that they will earn enough money to cover the cost of subscribing to the monthly service.

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Mel Gee is an expert, and like all experts, he ensures that people who buy the system subscription, will get a high percentage of profits in the next upcoming weeks. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Notify me of new posts by email. Last updated -6th November, Visit First Favourite horse racing betting system Now! Contents 1 Deep analysis of horse racing 2 What does the system offer?